National Housing Market Shows Signs of “Moderate” Vulnerability, CMHC Says

Canada's housing market showed "moderate evidence of overvaluation" in the second quarter, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. CMHC stands by its May housing forecast, which suggested a decline in prices between 9% and 18% from pre-pandemic levels before starting to recover in the first half of 2021. However, CMHC CEO Evan Siddall recently walked back his characterization of the impending "deferral cliff," which referred to the end of lender-granted mortgage payment deferrals this fall. Housing markets identified as showing "moderate" vulnerability in Q2 include Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, Hamilton, Ottawa, Moncton and Halifax. In Eastern Canada, Moncton and Halifax are showing moderate signs of overvaluation, while Ottawa and Montreal are signalling moderate price acceleration.

In the Prairies, Edmonton and Calgary's economic woes continued, aggravated by the onset of the pandemic. CMHC takes this data into consideration when deciding whether to approve insured mortgage applications.