2023 Toronto Real Estate Forecast

2023 Toronto Real Estate Forecast

It appears that the Toronto real estate market in 2023 will be influenced by several factors, including mortgage arrears, the yield curve, and historical trends. The fact that banks are reporting mortgages arrears as being over 90 days outstanding suggests that there may be a downward pressure on prices due to power of sale listings entering MLS. The yield curve also suggests that a recession may be looming, although high employment rates may delay this until later in 2023.

Historically, real estate prices in Toronto have increased by 4% per year, due to the cost of new housing and immigration. However, in the past three years, prices have increased significantly (by 30-40%) followed by a decrease of 15-25%, resulting in an average annual increase of 5%. The forecast for 2023 suggests that prices may be lower in the first quarter, but positive by year-end, with increases that are below the historical average but still positive. It remains to be seen how these various factors will affect the Toronto real estate market over the course of the year.